NCAA: Top 10 Mike Richter award candidates of the first half

It's often difficult to judge NCAA goaltenders at this time of year, because most of them have played a maximum of about 15 games, less than half the schedule. The sample sizes in college hockey can make evaluation a little tough; a bad three-game stretch for a goalie can easily torpedo an otherwise Richter-worthy season and turn him into a bit of an also-ran, or a three-game hot streak can make an otherwise just-pretty-good goalie look like a legitimate awards contender. But at the end of the day, you only have the data available to you.

With the season now at the holiday break, it's time to consider who could be in the running for the Mike Richter Award, presented annually to the nation's best goaltender.

I've been a Richter voter for over a decade, and it has been very rare that the final “top three” for the award in any given year doesn't exactly match my personal top three. So keep in mind that the list below reflects how I think voters for this award will see the field, not necessarily my own personal picks (though obviously there is plenty of overlap). When possible, I try to mention other players I think will be in consideration for the award if things continue as they did in the first half.

Let's take a look at the 10 best candidates (presented in alphabetical order):

Trey Augustine, sophomore, Michigan State (DET 2023 2nd)

Generally speaking, you need to be a .930 or better goaltender to win the Mike Richter award. The winners in the 11 times they've given out the trophy had an average save percentage of .936, and only two were sub-.930. Both of them were .929. So, great news for Augustine, who is right at .930 at the halfway point of the season. His team is excellent, so he's going to win a lot of games (another important qualification for many Richter voters, in my 10-plus years of experience as one of them). His .939 save percentage at 5-on-5 is obviously also elite, and his .880 save percentage on high-danger chances is very good. Barring something catastrophic, we can safely project Augustine will be a top-five Richter guy at the bare minimum by season's end.

Albin Boija, sophomore, Maine (Undrafted free agent)

Boija mostly split time for the Black Bears last year but has been given free rein this year, and is paying major dividends. He's had one statistically bad game (giving up 5 on 27 to Quinnipiac in mid-October, in a game his team still won), but even that was marred by goofy bounces rather than him having an off night. He has more shutouts this season (three) than games in which he conceded more than two goals (two). He just doesn't have off nights this year, with .932 in all situations, and .942 at 5-on-5. Another guy on a great team who feels like a shoo-in to at least get finalist consideration.

Jacob Fowler, sophomore, Boston College (MTL 2023 3rd)

Lump Fowler into the same group as Augustine and Boija. He was already a finalist as a freshman last season, losing out to Wisconsin's Kyle McClellan, and so far has been just as good as he was before. His .933 save percentage is up from 2023-24 — though his 5-on-5 save percentage is down a bit — and his team is arguably the best in the country, so the wins will keep on coming. He is also probably the biggest reason it took BC until late into its final game before break before giving up its first power-play goal of the season. Fowler's never going to face a ton of shots, but it's hard to hold that against him, especially because he already has one more shutout than the three he posted last year. It should all keep flowing smoothly for him.

Matt Davis, senior, Denver (Undrafted free agent)

Davis is the first goalie I don't have as a lock to be in the top five or 10 by the end of the season, but that's for reasons of sample size, like I mentioned earlier. Right now his save percentage is just .918, which isn't gonna move the needle at the end of the year. But his team hit some pre-break bumps in the road and he's a second-half goalie and the team's unquestioned starter even if he had a tough few weeks there, so I expect him to at least move into the conversation by year's end. There are certainly guys ahead of him right now who are off to phenomenal starts but suffer from issues related to smaller samples — Ben Charette, Cameron Rowe and Hampton Slukynsky, Liam Souliere, Dylan Silverstein, JJ Cataldo, etc. — that make them less projectable. Any could pass Davis by season's end in terms of Richter resume, but sometimes you gotta stick with the reliable play for the time being.

Thomas Gale, senior, Holy Cross (Undrafted free agent)

Last year, Gale split time with an excellent goaltender, Jason Grande, who graduated. Now the crease is Gale's alone, and he's grabbed the opportunity with both hands. His save percentage is .923, a little below what voters typically want to see, but he's come on strong in the last few weeks, allowing just two goals on the last 93 shots he faced. If he can maintain anything resembling that, especially as the Crusaders get into their league schedule, he's likely to have the games-played, win total, and perhaps save percentage to make a strong case for himself.

Josh Kotai, sophomore, Augustana (Undrafted free agent)

Among goalies with just five or more appearances, Kotai has the No. 2 save percentage in the country (.942) and is stopping .945 at 5-on-5. There basically isn't an underlying number that doesn't scream "ELITE." He has a strongly positive goals-saved-above-expected number (which is rare for a heavy starter in college hockey) and is stopping north of 90 percent of the high-danger shots he faces. This is a huge step forward for Augustana and Kotai, and it will be interesting to see if they can keep up this blistering pace in the second half.

Simon Latkoczy, junior, Omaha (Undrafted free agent)

Latkozcy's game took a small step back between his freshman and sophomore seasons, but seemingly a great leap forward as a junior. He's right on that .930 cusp, but his .936 full-strength save percentage perhaps portends good things, especially because the team in front of him tends to keep high-danger looks to a relatively low rate, just over a quarter of all shots he faces. The big issue with Latkozcy's candidacy is that even with elite goaltending, his team is sub-.500, and unfortunately goalies on non-tournament teams don't get as much consideration as they should.

Kaidan Mbereko, junior, Colorado College (Undrafted free agent)

That point about non-tournament teams not producing many Richter candidates was all too true of Mbereko two years ago, but last season he was a finalist despite having a worse statistical year. Like some of the other goalies on this list, he had a tough stretch — he gave up 14 goals over the past two weekends' worth of games — but has otherwise been brilliant as usual. His save percentage (.923, and .924 at 5-on-5) will need to come up, but he's shown he's more than capable of it, and as he improves, so too will his team's tournament odds. I wouldn't put him in my top five right now, but I have some confidence that he could work his way into that group with a return to form in the second half.

Isak Posch, sophomore, St. Cloud State (Undrafted free agent)

It's important to recognize what Posch did in the first half of the season, because he's fourth in save percentage among goalies with at least 10 appearances (.938) and is a huge part of the reason St. Cloud is off to its hot start. However, he suffered an injury in early December that will keep him out for as much as four months. That's obviously a huge blow for the team and for a goalie having a phenomenal second season, and it opens the door for both backup Gavin Enright — .918 in limited action — and another goalie just on the outside of this top-10 list (Cataldo, Silverstein, Souliere, etc.). But like I said, his start deserved recognition.

Alex Tracy, junior, Minnesota State (Undrafted free agent)

Saving the statistical best for last, Tracy leads the country in all-situations save percentage at .945. His 5-on-5 number is also pushing .960(!), in large part because, as ever, the Mavericks give up almost no high-danger chances. Only 18.7 percent of the shots Tracy has faced are from Grade-A areas, and he's stopping more than 87 percent of those. All of that adds up to a rock-solid candidacy that should hold up remarkably well once the break is over, too.

Mike Richter award midseason ranking

With all of the above having been said, here's how I would rank the 10 goalies listed here in terms of likelihood to win the Richter, based on both performance to this point and the likelihood they continue or improve on their current situations in the second half:

1. Jacob Fowler
2. Trey Augustine
3. Albin Boija
4. Alex Tracy
5. Simon Latkoczy
6. Josh Kotai
7. Kaidan Mbereko
8. Thomas Gale
9. Matt Davis
10. Isak Posch (entirely due to the injury that will hold him out for almost all of the second half)