NCAA: Top 10 Hobey Baker award candidates of the first half
Halfway through the NCAA season is when most of the nation's best players have truly differentiated themselves, even from those who are merely "very good." These are the players who will most likely end up in the running for the Hobey Baker award, given annually to the nation's most outstanding player.
But this year, many of the top scorers, best defensemen, and elite goaltender are concentrated on a handful of the highest-ranked teams, or else toiling on those that are struggling to stay on the NCAA bubble. Unfortunately for those in the latter group, it's not often that players on also-ran teams get serious consideration as the "most outstanding" across all 64 Div. 1 teams.
So, with an eye toward keeping this list interesting and not just giving you 10 players from three or four different teams, let's try to keep overlap to a minimum. While it has certainly happened that teammates have both been in the Hobey Hat Trick — as recently as 2023, in fact — that only occurs maybe once a decade on average, so it's important to shake things up.
The other thing to keep in mind, though, is that for a bunch of reasons I'll get into below, I don't know that anyone's differentiated themselves in the way future winners already had by this point in recent years. As such, it feels like one of the most wide-open Hobey fields in years.
One last thing: Please keep in mind that this is how I think voters for this award will see the field, not necessarily my own personal picks (though obviously there is plenty of overlap). When possible, I try to mention other guys I think will be in consideration for the award if things continue as they did in the first half.
Let's take a look at the 10 best candidates (presented in alphabetical order):
Trey Augustine, Soph. G, Michigan State (DET 2023 2nd)
When Minnesota State's Dryden McKay won the Hobey in 2022, he was the first goalie in almost a quarter-century to do so. Moreover, he was only the sixth goalie to even get into the Hobey Hat Trick — a.k.a. the top three finalists — since 2008. So goalies don't usually get a lot of consideration for this award. But I think, perhaps, Augustine is one of two special cases this year. He's running at .930 through 14 appearances (and .939 at 5-on-5, which shows this is really repeatable and not just a huge PK sv% driving things) and is not by any means viewed as a system goalie, which is often a knock against otherwise great netminders (though not McKay, interestingly). Moreover, he's on a truly great team, and players from teams that finish in the nation's top four or five usually get more consideration for this award.
There's basically no argument against Augustine as a top goaltender at the break, and if he keeps it up, it would be a shock if he weren't in the top 10 for the Hobey at year's end. Whether that's his ceiling for the award is another question, but he can certainly make a strong case for himself.
Zeev Buium, Soph. LD, Denver (2024 MIN 1st)
It was a minor scandal, to me, that Buium wasn't in the Hobey top 10 as a freshman last season. He did it all for the eventual national champions after starting the season at age 17. Not that the age matters to voters but it made him being the Pioneers' top D on Day 1 of the season all the more impressive. He ended that year posting 11-39—50 in 42 games, which is absurd, and so far this year he's on pace to more or less match that: 4-16—20 in 18 appearances. That's a points-per-game shortfall of just 0.079. I think he'll be fine on the scoring front.
But even beyond that, Buium is heavily used, averaging almost 24.5 minutes per game (13th in the nation) and that number has been on the rise more recently.
Denver is in a bit of a rut right now but should rebound just fine in the second half, and if they do, there's little doubt Buium will be one of the big engines. You always have to mix a defenseman or two into the Hobey conversation even if you're fairly confident they won't make the top three, and Buium is among the very best in the nation.
Jack Devine, Sr. RW, Denver (FLA 2022 7th)
Devine was in the Hobey top 10 last year but likely split the "Denver forward" vote with linemate Massimo Rizzo (and Buium) to deny him what otherwise could have a top-three season. But the winger returned to the Pioneers for a final season so he could fully prepare for a professional career himself, and he's seemingly taken a step. While he only has two goals so far this season — shooting just 4 percent, which ought to come up — he is the nation's leading scorer with 27 points and 1.5 points per game. In fact, he has as many assists than the next-closest player has total points.
It must be said, though, that the Hobey is usually a goalscorer's award, and voters might not be too impressed if he ends the year with a single-digit goal total. However, he netted 27 goals last season and 14 the year before, so this is a guy who can score in bunches if he gets hot.
Still, even without the goals, he's undeniably one of the most dangerous offensive forces in the country, and if he ends the year pushing 60 points or more, he's likely to be a Hat Trick guy, especially because voters will love him coming back for that final year of college hockey.
Quinn Finley, Soph. LW, Wisconsin (NYI 2022 3rd)
After scoring a solid 10 goals as a freshman, Finley is already sitting on 14 in his sophomore campaign, and leads the country in goals. Now, y'know, is that because he's shooting 19 percent? You bet it is. But after a rough start, the Badgers seem like they've turned things around, going the last 10 games without a regulation loss despite playing five games in that stretch against the iron of the Big Ten (Minnesota, Michigan State, and Michigan).
Finley is their leading scorer both overall and in that stretch, posting 8-9—17 over that stretch. If that pace is anything resembling repeatable for him, he'll be a Hobey favorite, because he'll probably be up around 30 goals, Wisconsin will probably qualify for an at-large bid, and he'll be seen as the driver of that ascension. The fact that he's shooting at about double the pace he did last year (already at 74 shots on goal through 19 games) portends good things.
Jacob Fowler, Soph. G, Boston College (MTL 2023 3rd)
Fowler is the other goalie on this list for similar reasons to Augustine. He's seen as a big part of the success of possibly the best team in the country, and is actually being leaned on a little more than he was last season, when he was a Mike Richter award finalist (but not in the Hobey top 10).
He already has more shutouts than he did last year, on a team that's scoring less, and his save percentage is now up to .933. The issue with the number is that he's allowed just one power-play goal all season and he certainly won't be sitting on a .984 shorthanded save percentage at season's end. Can he elevate his 5-on-5 save percentage (.923, down from .927 last year) to compensate? My guess is that he can.
But even as his trophy case may fill up, you do have to wonder if the won't-someone-think-of-the-children types who hold too much sway in voting for this award will hold the fact that he threw a gloved punch and got kicked out of a game earlier this season against him. They tried to do that with Adam Fantilli a few years ago and were unsuccessful, but given that the Hobey rarely goes to goalies, that might (unfairly) sink Fowler's candidacy.
Michael Hage, Fr. C, Michigan (MTL 2024 1st)
The lone freshman on the list, Hage has instantly shown why the hype around him is real. He's Michigan's leading scorer — up five on his next-closest teammates with three fewer games played. He's also in an eight-way tie for eighth in the country with 10 goals, but in only 15 games. Once the Wolverines are closer to the end of their conference schedule, his per-game pace could really help differentiate him from what is currently a crowded field.
Again, Hobey loves goals and Hage's finishing to date would make him a real standout, but that said he also has the second-highest shooting percentage and second-fewest shots among the top 15.
The other thing to say here is that the voters really don't like giving the Hobey to freshmen if they can avoid it, though Macklin Celebrini really didn't give them a choice last year. I would say neither Hage nor James Hagens have really done enough as the nation's best freshmen to truly stand out as a top-three Hobey guy, or even get that close.
Ryan Leonard, Soph. RW, Boston College (WSH 2023 1st)
Here's your nation's top goals-per-game guy, just behind Finley and tied Minnesota's Brody Lamb for second in total goals. With 12 goals in 16, his scoring rate is actually down (by sixth thousandths of a goal) from last year, when he scored 31 in 41 as a freshman. But here's the thing: Leonard is a volume shooter and he's actually been a little unlucky this season.
He shot a hair under 18.5 percent as a freshman, and is currently at 12.8 percent this year. He's hit more than a few posts this season, which happens, and that's fine. But he's putting like 40 percent more shots on goal per game this year, so there's room for the nation's leading scorer to… score more? That may be especially true as Hagens finds more confidence in his game at the college level in the second half. If that happens, Leonard could score even more goals, while also picking up more assists.
The voters went for Cutter Gauthier and Will Smith as BC's two players in the Hobey top 10 (and Gauthier was in the Hat Trick), but Leonard and, to a very slightly lesser extent, Gabe Perreault (7-16—23 in 16 games, second in the country in points per game) will probably get that kind of look this year if Fowler doesn't get due consideration.
Sam Rinzel, Soph. RD, Minnesota (CHI 2022 1st)
Rinzel is an interesting case. While he was also an impressive freshman defenseman for a very good team last season, he had "just" 28 points to Buium's 50, so he didn't get much of a look from Hobey voters.
But while Buium is still chugging away at a great pace, Rinzel seems to have taken a huge step forward as a high-scoring defenseman in his second year. He's up to 8-12—20 in 20 games, compared with 2-26—28 in 39 last year. He probably won't shoot close to 15 percent all year, but if he can get up to 12 or more goals on a team that's among the nation's two or three best while playing 23 minutes a night in a highly competitive conference? It'll be hard to keep him out of the top 10. You can make an argument he's the best defenseman in the country right now, and it almost never happens that blue liners get shut out.
Harrison Scott, Sr. C, Maine (Undrafted free agent)
Maine is one of the best teams in the nation, right? Well, Scott is their leading scorer in both goals (10) and total points (20), and their top center, playing the most minutes on the team among forwards (19:30) while taking the toughest assignments. His 1.25 points per game is tied for 10th in the country, and his goal total is tied for eighth.
But even beyond that, being the key cog for a team that is basically a shoo-in for a high-seeded at-large bid — despite its leading scorer from last season, Bradly Nadeau — and took a huge step forward in production (last year he set across-the-board personal career highs with 15-12—17) is the kind of thing voters love, especially if you're a senior. Moreover, Scott has the opportunity to make a further case for himself with the potentially season-ending injury to another key offensive weapon, Lynden Breen. As such, more of the Black Bears' offensive needs will need to run through Scott, and if he takes up that yoke ably, it's easy to see voters viewing his top-10 candidacy as irresistible.
Jimmy Snuggerud, Jr. RW, Minnesota (STL 2022 1st)
Snuggerud deciding to come back for his junior year may have surprised many observers, but he's back on the elite scoring track he showed as a freshman, despite being way more of a focus in the Golden Gopher offense.
He's Minnesota's leading scorer (9-15—24), and is tied for second on the team in goals. He shoots the puck a ton — 157 attempts in 20 games! — and maybe deserves to have netted more than he has. He's been held off the scoresheet only five times this season, and just once in a conference game.
Voters will like that he returned for a third and probably final NCAA season after posting back-to-back 21-goal campaigns, and while he's a little below that rate right now, he's pushing to get up around the 50 points he posted as breakout freshman. Given how much ice time he gets in important games — often over 21 minutes against other big-name teams — and how much he shoots, and how productive his linemates like Lamb have proven to be, it's easy to see Snuggerud going on a second-half run and cementing himself in the Hobey Hat Trick discussion.
Hobey Baker award midseason ranking
With all of the above having been said, here's how I would rank the 10 players listed here in terms of likelihood to win the Hobey, based on both performance to this point and the likelihood they continue or improve on their current situations in the second half:
- Ryan Leonard
- Sam Rinzel
- Jack Devine
- Jacob Fowler
- Jimmy Snuggerud
- Zeev Buium
- Trey Augustine
- Quinn Finley
- Michael Hage
- Harrison Scott
