What We Learned: How good are the New Jersey Devils?
The thing about hockey is that you don't want to take the results of any individual game too seriously. There is such a thing as a devastating loss, but that's more due to how they affect your position in the standings or the health of individual players than what one game out of 82 actually means.
However, losses can add up, and so when you see the New Jersey Devils lose on Saturday — their fourth game in a row — to a poor San Jose Sharks team, you might feel a sense of doom and gloom creeping in. Even with this recent string of losses, though, you have to look at the Devils' points percentage — .607, good for 12th in the league through Saturday's games — and see that they're largely playing well. They sit third in the division, have a handful of proven stars at every position, and still show some room to grow. It’s a huge step up from where they were at this point last season, and if they’re on pace for roughly 100 points, that’s about all you can ask of most teams.
Additionally, they are one of the best teams in the league in terms of underlying numbers, consistently controlling games by a substantial margin. They’ve only been outshot three times since the start of December, during which time they are plus-108 in shots on goal across just 15 games. They are also regularly getting standout performances from several forwards and defencemen. They’ve been one of the healthier teams in the league in terms of not losing top players for long stretches, which is another positive. Add in the fact that Jacob Markstrom has been one of the five or so best goaltenders in the league to date, and it’s easy to see why the Devils are where they are — and to make the case that they can improve upon their results.
The Eastern Conference as a whole is looking a little soft in certain respects. Even if there’s some room for concern with the Devils’ recent play, their run through the first half of the season has them sitting fifth in points percentage. The cushion they’ve built for themselves is strong enough that it would take a disaster for them to fall out of playoff contention at this point. So, let’s instead assume they step on the gas in the second half, climb to third, fourth, or fifth in the East, and maybe even push for the top of the division.
At that point, what is the Devils’ ceiling, realistically?
Even setting aside the troubling recent results, they don’t quite have the feel of a truly great team. Much like you don’t want to weigh any individual result, or a handful of them, too heavily, it also doesn’t take much for a team that’s somewhere in the 10-12 range league-wide to make a deep playoff run. We aren’t so far removed from Dallas and Montreal making it to the Stanley Cup Final, and even though those playoffs were, to some extent, anomalous for a variety of reasons, the fact remains that any team qualifying for the playoffs can string together eight wins in the first two rounds with just a couple of lucky bounces. Hockey is just random enough for that to be true, but the four wins needed to get to a Cup Final often feel like the real differentiator. Winning even one round, let alone two, is an accomplishment, but it’s also not uncommon for middling teams to luck their way to a Conference Final.
Typically, you don't just need a good top-to-bottom roster and great coaching to get you over that hump. You need superstar players. Look at the cap-era Cup winners; only St. Louis and Carolina didn't have at least two truly elite, best-at-their-position-level players. Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, and Nico Hischier are serious scoring threats who can take over a game, but they're not on the same level as Sasha Barkov or Matthew Tkachuk, just to compare them to the most recent Cup-winning stars. Dougie Hamilton should get at least some Norris consideration this season (as long as voters are willing to look past the diving fine), but his play to date, and for the last few years, mostly hasn't been at the level Gustav Forsling's was last season, and for as much as we can love the potential from Luke Hughes, he's not close to that level at age 21.
Markstrom is the difference-maker here, of course. He’s shown he can be one of the best goaltenders in the world, both this season and at several points in the past. However, he’s also a goalie who seems to struggle with heavy workloads. Historically, the more you play him, the more likely it becomes that his performance declines or he gets injured at some point. That doesn’t become less true when you’re 35 years old. Ideally, Jake Allen will be there to take some of that pressure off in the second half, but he hasn’t adapted to his new team nearly as quickly as Markstrom. Not that you’d want to be in a situation where you’re relying on your No. 2 all that often as the end of the regular season approaches and the playoffs get underway, but the pressure on Markstrom to keep performing at this level is immense.
As a whole, they have the talent to win four out of any seven games you put them in, though I suppose you could ask their coach about how tough it can be to win even four games if you have elite players at just one position. As such, I’m not entirely convinced this particular group can win 12 (let alone 16) against mostly great-to-elite teams over the course of two months.
The reason their true potential as a team is so intriguing to me is that they’re at an unusual point in their competitive window. They’ve got lots of top players in their early-to-mid 20s, but also some who are well past 30 and obviously not getting any younger.
It only needs to come together for a short time, and the Devils do have the capability to pull that off. But depending on which statistical model you trust, they have roughly a 7-8 per cent chance of winning the Cup, and that feels generous — likely based on Markstrom maintaining his current form and the relative weakness of their division.
Given that, it feels like now is the time to consider going out and adding a top player. I wouldn’t normally advocate for that with the general youth of New Jersey’s core, but trading away some picks and prospects seems like a prudent move. While it certainly doesn’t guarantee a Stanley Cup, it makes competing for one while Markstrom can still perform at an elite level a lot more realistic.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: Wins are wins but I wonder what they think the endgame is for this season. Probably selling again? Okay.
Boston Bruins: This will be a good return for them when it happens. Problem is, they don't know.
Buffalo Sabres: Sure, they were horrible again, but I just know they're two wins away from being able to say they've figured it out.
Calgary Flames: Results are starting to slip a little bit here. They're two games below NHL .500 since late November, outscored 63-47. Just .500 since the season-opening four-game winning streak. Maybe you just say it's to be expected.
Carolina Hurricanes: Rough patch in December but they have the horses to straighten things out.
Chicago: Sure, why not?
Colorado Avalanche: Every time you're like, "Alright, they're gonna go on a big run now and scare everyone to death," they have a goofy game like this. Weird season for them.
Columbus Blue Jackets: The Blue Jackets have 32 goals in their last eight games. And that's despite getting shut out in Boston just before the end of 2024. Pretty fun to watch right now.
Dallas Stars: Much like the Avs, you'd love to see these guys put together a really strong 10 games or so, wouldn't ya? They have the ability, but haven't really done it much this year. Maybe now's the time.
Detroit Red Wings: They've won four straight, too. Are they figuring things out or is this dead cat bouncing?
Edmonton Oilers: Did you know that after a bit of a slow start (by his standards), Leon Draisaitl is on pace for 60 goals and 120-plus points? Would be cool if he got there.
Florida Panthers: Hey, why not at this point?
Los Angeles Kings: Nine straight wins in LA, almost a quarter of their home schedule. Outrageous run of success for them.
Minnesota Wild: Yeah, he should.
Montreal Canadiens: That this is true says more about the East than their quality. They're a .500 hockey team that happens to be playing well right now, it's not like they're actually all that good.
Nashville Predators: "It didn't at all."
New Jersey Devils: Yes.
New York Islanders: Probably bad when this sort of thing is being published on the team's website, but it really sucks for fans.
New York Rangers: These comments from the big man are crazy. No one trusts each other! Bad news!
Ottawa Senators: Just brutal news. It was starting to go so well.
Philadelphia Flyers: What a headline. Oofie doofie.
Pittsburgh Penguins: You think you know the answer to this question but I assure you, you do not. Singing a different tune these days, I guess.
San Jose Sharks: The crucial combo: Beating good teams sometimes in fun games, but still losing enough to be one of the three worst teams in the league. That's just good rebuilding.
Seattle Kraken: Who would have thought that giving a guy who couldn't hack it in New York more ice time was all he needed? Weird.
St. Louis Blues: I love this stat: Brandon Saad has seven goals in 33 games this season. He had a pair of two-goal games and then a hat trick. No goals in the other 30. Strange.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Let's not go nuts.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Can this be true?
Utah [fill in the blank later]: Propels, you say?
Vancouver Canucks: That old thing about "may you live in interesting times" was something they came up with for the Canucks, specifically.
Vegas Golden Knights: They've lost twice since the start of December and opened up a big ol' lead in the division. Feels like it's theirs to lose.
Washington Capitals: Yeah but it's against the Rangers so it's barely an accomplishment.
Winnipeg Jets: I wouldn't have guessed the number was this low, honestly.
Play of the Weekend
Great combo play from two guys who know each other real well:
https://x.com/NHLNetwork/status/1875708225984864297
Gold Star Award
Matthew Knies went crazy against the Bruins the other night. Maybe it does feel like the breakout year we've been waiting for.
Minus of the Weekend
Hey speaking of that game, David Pastrnak was a minus-4 despite scoring twice at even strength. That shouldn't happen. Rough season for him in a lot of ways.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "FoxyClean" is reaching, but just might have something:
Panarin (50% retained) + 2025 1st (Unprotected) for Ryan Leonard
