What We Learned: How good are the Nashville Predators now?
It's hard to say the Nashville Predators aren't one of the two or three most improved teams in the NHL this summer.
They signed Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei (I think people forget that one). Yes, they were forced to trade Yaroslav Askarov, but did pretty well for themselves despite their disadvantageous position. But apart from that, the only players they lost to free agency or trade were depth forwards who didn't really move the needle or got a little bit too much money elsewhere. To call Barry Trotz's summer a net positive is an understatement, even leaving aside the vibes shift.
Because when Trotz took over, there was a real thought that the Preds would have to blow it up, hoard picks and prospects for a few seasons, and try to figure it out in like 2028. But Trotz has been around for a long time and has never come across as the kind of guy who's gonna try to play the long game and win by losing. Hiring Andrew Brunette in May 2023 to run the team was a master stroke, and one I imagine the New Jersey Devils regret allowing to happen given how this past season went — though at the time it was at least vaguely defensible. But adding to the roster as he has and, just as importantly, identifying the dead weight and the marks who will take it off his hands (Ryan McDonagh to the Tampa Bay Lightning was an incredible turn) has the Preds positioned for a lot of success this coming season.
The question is, how much success are we talking about, exactly?
Because people remember the 99 points. They remember the couple of days it looked like the Predators could give the Vancouver Canucks a series. They certainly remember that big July 1. But do they remember how things really went last season? How close Trotz seemed to trading Juuse Saros, widely acknowledged as one of the best goalies on earth, as a kind of sign of his willingness to at least "retool" instead of rebuild? How a cancelled U2 concert attendance allowed them to string together 34 points — more than a third of their season total — in just 18 games over five weeks? They scored 74 goals in those 18 games (4.1 per game) and 192 in the other 64 (3.0 per game). Even in adding Stamkos and Marchessault, I'm not sure how much offence they're gonna be tacking onto the total 266, which put them 10th in the league in offensive output last season. On the one hand, they actually underperformed their expected-goals total (a whopping 287, seventh most in the league) but they didn't exactly have a murderer's row of offensive talents who were going to punch above their weight in that regard. I think the best you can say about Stamkos and Marchessault are that they make 270ish goals reachable again, and of course any team with a decent offensive top end can go nuts for a month or three (see, again, Nashville shooting 12-plus percent in February and March when their third-leading scorer for the year was Gus Nyquist).
So I think the ceiling on this offence is about where it was last year. Adding who they did to the system Brunette employs makes that sustainable. Moreover, it must be acknowledged that Saros wasn't his usual spectacular self last year. His save percentage was just .906 which is merely fine. His plus-7.5 goals saved above expected is something any team would certainly take from a starter, but when his total across the previous three seasons was third-best in the league at 65.8, you can see obvious room for improvement. Easy to see where you write the down year off as just one of those things.
So if Saros is world-class again, it feels like the 99-103 point range is a pretty reasonable floor for the season. And maybe that's fine for where the team is at in its competitive cycle. But will people accept that kind of regular season success, perhaps with the wins a bit more spread out over the course of the season, if the playoff result — a first-round exit — is the same? Let's be honest: Saros being mediocre in those six games isn't the (only) reason they lost. Vancouver was just a comprehensively better team, and they weren't even that good.
I just wonder how the vibes and expectations, such as they are, will line up with the results. Because they have elite talent at most positions (including the single most important one), they have the ability to go on a run, but that's definitely not the most likely outcome.
The good news, if you wanna call it that, is the Preds are locked into this kind of "we'll probably finish between eighth and 12th in the league" situation for a few years, until the rust of their glut of aging stars really starts to show. Are they a top-three team in their own division? Probably, depending on how you feel about the Winnipeg Jets. But if the difference is marginal, that opens up some questions. Plus, they're already the fifth-oldest team in the league and have a middling prospect pool. They can move any or all of their three first-round picks in the 2025 draft to improve the roster even more during the season, and they probably will because Trotz has shown repeatedly that he's good at pulling off trades. But midseason adds don't historically add a ton to your regular-season point or the depth of your playoff run unless they're truly special players.
So it'll be interesting to see where this goes. It's a veteran team. There are now officially Rings In The Room. And maybe, just maybe, they can really twist the knife on all the crybabies who are now really really really concerned about how lack of state income tax is affecting the NHL.
First they gotta prove getting to 99 points last year wasn't their ceiling. They probably can. But it's not a lock. Which, given how their summer went, is easy to forget.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: Greater number next season: Angles wins or Ducks standings points? Either way, it's probably gonna be close.
Boston Bruins: "Cool."
Buffalo Sabres: You don't have to do him like that in the headline.
Calgary Flames: Kinda the only thing to be intrigued by, isn't it?
Carolina Hurricanes: I hate when I have to learn a new arena name. It should just be called Hurricanes Arena.
Chicago: Ah, breathless updates from rookie tournaments. It is simply that time of year.
Colorado Avalanche: Spoiler: It's their three best players.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Nice addition but they probably can't be done yet.
Dallas Stars: I'd love to see you stop me.
Detroit Red Wings: Great ideas here. They should do all of them.
Edmonton Oilers: It feels like they're kinda going to have to.
Florida Panthers: I am so sick of hearing about this income tax thing. It wasn't a problem until Florida teams started winning and now all of a sudden every Canadian reporter is pissed off about tax rates. Just watch the games, man.
Los Angeles Kings: I don't know. Probably?
Minnesota Wild: Can't wait to buy a Vikings shirt.
Montréal Canadiens: Sneaky Calder candidate here, maybe.
Nashville Predators: Some interesting stuff here.
New Jersey Devils: We have to do something to protect these shoulders.
New York Islanders: See this is the kind of statement that would have me worried in the year 2024.
New York Rangers: Underappreciated? People literally talked about making him a starter at one point last season.
Ottawa Senators: This was extremely funny.
Philadelphia Flyers: Is there such a thing as overhyping? There is? I see.
Pittsburgh Penguins: I'm not exactly high on these guys but 30th is insane. Grow up.
San Jose Sharks: Cool goalie for a while there. Nice to see him immediately find a new career track.
Seattle Kraken: Well you'd certainly hope so.
St. Louis Blues: Drew Bannister built his own garage this summer. Hey man, you make a lot of money. You could have had someone else do it for you. Classic mistake.
Tampa Bay Lightning: The point of the "odd couple" archetype is that despite their differences they match each other perfectly. Did you not see the Matthau/Lemmon movie? The Randall/Klugman show? I think they did one with Matthew Perry but I didn't watch that so I can't speak to it.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Oh yeah, awesome.
Utah [fill in the blank later]: These same fans also said white rice (no seasoning) is their favorite meal.
Vancouver Canucks: Yeah that's not good.
Vegas Golden Knights: That's the right call with a guy who turns 34 in December.
Washington Capitals: It would have been funny if he'd said the opposite.
Winnipeg Jets: You really think so, man? Interesting take but you gotta respect it!
Gold Star Award
So long to Antti Raanta. Good player!
Minus of the Weekend
Frankly I don't think a 35-year-old who has been in the NHL for years should be playing in a prospect tournament.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "AintLifeGrand" is laser-focused:
To CBJ: Phil Tomasino, Dante Fabbro, 2025 1st
To Nash: Kent Johnson, Charlie Elick , 2025 3rd
