EP Rinkside's top 20 centres going into the 2024-25 NHL season

Everyone has some idea of how they expect the 2024-25 NHL season to play out. As we know all too well, though, it doesn't often play out that way. This sport is exceptionally difficult to predict. Even the best standings forecasts often miss by about 10 points on average – per team, not in total.

Frankly, you could argue it's silly to even try to make a serious projection of what's ahead. On the other hand, it is September…

So, we're going to try our best to make some predictions anyway, with the fourth run of EP Rinkside's annual NHL player rankings. If you're new here, then here's the breakdown. We go position-by-positioning, ranking the 20 best players and sorting them into tiers based on how I expect them to perform in the upcoming season.

You might expect this to be based purely on numbers, but I can assure you that I'm not just sorting by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and calling it a day. I take a more holistic approach, leaning on my own expertise, TopDownHockey's WAR model, Corey Sznajder's manually tracked microstats, and data from our partners at InStat Hockey. This should result in a more balanced and reasonable ranking than any one method would alone.

This year, I've also decided to change up the presentation a bit. In the past, I've used graphics directly inspired by my player cards, showing both projected WAR for the coming season and six of the player in question's strongest attributes, selected from a set of data points, to give a quick look at what these guys do best. 

Inspired by the work done by EP Rinkside's prospect writers, I've chosen to take a different tack this time around. While I won't go quite so far as adopting the nine-point rating system – nobody wants to hear me talk in detail about skating technique – the new graphics include projected player ratings for the 2024-25 season in four categories: offensive zone play, defence, transition play, and miscellaneous. Departing from the percentile rankings I use on player cards, I've gone with a 1-to-10 rating based on projected finish to respect the uncertainty at play here. The idea is to provide a broader impression of every player's strengths and weaknesses instead of focusing entirely on the positive parts of their game.

Here's an example:

Here's a list of the metrics used, all of them per 60 5-on-5 projections for the 2024-25 season based on the previous three seasons of results. I've also marked their source (TopDownHockey = TDH, AllThreeZones = A3Z, InStat = IS, NHL = NHL)

Offensive Zone

• xGoal Impact: Isolated impact on his team's generation of expected goals (i.e. shots weighed by likelihood of going in) when he's on the ice (TDH)
• Slot Shots: Scoring chances from the slot (A3Z)
• Perimeter Shots: Shots from other areas of the offensive zone (A3Z)
• Finishing Touch: Goals scored above expected given quality of shots (TDH)
• Slot Passes: Passes to the slot resulting in a shot (A3Z)
• Perimeter Passing: Passes to other areas of the offensive zone resulting in a shot (A3Z)

Defence

• xGoal Impact: Isolated impact on his team's prevention of expected goals when he's on the ice (TDH)
• D-Zone Puck Touches: Puck touches within the defensive zone (A3Z)
• Takeaways: Pucks stolen from opponents (IS)
• Puck Battles: 50/50 battles for the puck engaged in (IS)
• Body Checks: Hits as counted by the league (away only to filter out recording bias) (NHL)
• Forechecking: Offensive zone puck recoveries and pressures on opposing defencemen (A3Z)

Transition

• Transition Workload: Transition plays with the puck (A3Z)
• Transition Possession: Rate at which the player makes transition plays with possession as opposed to dump-ins and clears (A3Z)
• Transition Carries: Transition plays by carrying the puck into or out of the neutral zone (A3Z)
• Transition Passes: Transition plays by passing the puck into or out of the neutral zone (A3Z)
• Transition Offence: Shots and passes leading to slots off the rush (A3Z)

Miscellaneous

• Speed: Weighed combination of a player's top speed and frequency with which they exceed 22 miles per hour (NHL)
• Puck Touches: Puck touches in any zone (IS)
• Turnover Avoidance: Turnovers per puck touch (IS)
• Deking: One-on-one dekes (IS)
• Penalty +/-: Net non-coincidental minor penalties drawn versus taken (TDH)

Player positions used in this list will be based directly on the work of @NHL_Rosters on Twitter, who has been running the most accurate depth charts in the league for several years now. 

Tier 1: Generational

1. Connor McDavid - Edmonton Oilers

2023 Ranking: Tier 1

The greatest player of his generation keeps on finding ways to outdo himself. Sure, he only reached half of his incredible 64-goal output in 2022-23 last season, but this was driven in large part by one of the most impressive playmaking performances in NHL history. McDavid became only the fourth player ever to hit 100 assists in a single season and the third player to hit 40 points in a single playoffs, smashed the NHL record for helpers in a single playoffs, helped turn Zach Hyman into a 54-goal scorer, won the Conn Smythe trophy as a skater on a losing team, and at 5-on-5 led the league in primary assists as well as shot assists, chance assists, and high-danger passing. He’s also the fastest player in the league, has an elite shot and hands, and pulls his weight defensively.

Tier 2: MVP Contenders

2. Auston Matthews - Toronto Maple Leafs

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

It’s a testament to how ridiculously strong the elite of the NHL is these days that Matthews scored 69 goals, the most of any player since 1993, with great defensive play and strong contributions in pretty much every area of the ice, and wasn’t even nominated for the Hart Trophy for MVP. Matthews is a generational scorer because he’s both a generational finisher and a generational scoring chance generator. Nobody comes close to him in terms of creating scoring opportunities, and nobody can match his ability to convert those chances to goals, putting him miles ahead of the rest of the league’s snipers. Factor in that he’s an underrated playmaker, an absolute puck thief, a steady and immovable puck-handler, and a committed defender, and you could hardly ask for more.

3. Nathan MacKinnon - Colorado Avalanche

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

For the hyper-competitive MacKinnon, finally overcoming McDavid and Nikita Kucherov to win his first-ever Hart Trophy must’ve been as satisfying as the Round 2 defeat to the Dallas Stars was devastating. Hockey’s bull in a china shop ran over opposing defences as never before in 2023-24, ranking near the absolute top of the league in skating speed, rush shots, zone entries, and dekes with elite metrics in pretty much every other offensive category as well. This required some defensive short-cuts, and for all his physical gifts, you rarely see MacKinnon battling for the puck, throwing the body, or working on the forecheck, but these are nitpicks compared to the overwhelming impact of his dominant offensive game.

4. Aleksander Barkov - Florida Panthers

2023 Ranking: Tier 3

Last year, I gave Barkov the requisite sweeping praise that he’s received from pretty much everyone in the past few seasons (he’s good at everything, an unstoppable two-way force, etc.) with one reservation: that he’d been merely okay in the Panthers’ cinderella Cup Final run in 2023 and needed to deliver a signature playoff performance. That he did, leading his team in points and playing pristine two-way hockey while shutting down McDavid just enough in the Final to deliver his franchise its first Stanley Cup. With the Selke seemingly destined for his trophy cabinet for years to come, he’s poised to go down as one of the greatest two-way forwards the game’s ever seen.

5. Leon Draisaitl - Edmonton Oilers

2023 Ranking: Tier 2

When a disappointing season sees someone score 41 goals and 106 points, followed by 31 in the postseason, that’s a sign that you’ve set an outrageously high bar for yourself. Draisaitl’s combination of elite playmaking and a devastatingly accurate shot has made him one of this era’s purest offensive threats both at even strength and especially on the power play, where his ability to pick corners from impossible angles while forcing goalies and defenders to respect the risk of a slot-shredding feed has helped make the Oilers’ man advantage play unfair. The defensive numbers seem like they’re never going to be anything special, but you have to respect the body of work here.

Tier 3: Franchise Centres

6. Sidney Crosby - Pittsburgh Penguins

2023 Ranking: Tier 3

Crosby’s commitment to improvement, training, and conditioning has been one of his most heralded qualities throughout his 19-year career, and it has undoubtedly paid off as he continues to play elite hockey into his late 30s. Sid hit the 40-goal mark for the third time in his career and the first time since his 20s in 2023-24 while continuing to rank as the best passing centre in hockey aside from his heir apparent McDavid. His skating has held up, he’s one of the top-scoring chance creators in hockey, and he’s still capable of doing pretty much anything on the ice. 

7. Jack Hughes - New Jersey Devils

2023 Ranking: Tier 3

Hughes’ rapid and ceiling-defying development from a diminutive turnover machine who couldn’t pot a goal to save his life into one of the most deadly players in the NHL from 2020 to 2023 made the potential for yet another leap last season intriguing. It didn’t happen, as he levelled off a bit in an injury-shortened campaign in which the Devils failed to qualify for the postseason. But let’s be clear: levelling off here means producing at an elite rate while being among the absolute best puck carriers, playmakers, skaters, and puck thieves in the sport. 

8. Brayden Point - Tampa Bay Lightning

2023 Ranking: Tier 3

Point flies a bit under the radar these days for a two-time Cup champion in his prime who’s scored at a 48-goal, 93-point pace in the past two seasons. But while he may not be the dominant two-way force he was in his early twenties, he remains one of the most deadly centres in the game. Point puts the puck in the net at an elite rate both at 5-on-5 and on the powerplay, and although it certainly never hurts to have Kucherov on your flank, his skill set is a huge reason that partnership works as well as it does. His elite skating, size-defying nose for the net, superb hands, and gravity-defying shooting percentage (20-plus percent in consecutive seasons!) make him a cornerstone pivot.

9. Elias Pettersson - Vancouver Canucks

2023 Ranking: Tier 3

Pettersson’s career to this point has been a showcase in efficiency. A 16.7 career shooting percentage from a player who doesn’t shoot nearly as much from the slot as his comparables. Elite primary assist rates despite the good-but-not-incredible passing volume. The best penalty difference in the NHL since entering the league. The 2023-24 season saw him hit the second-best totals of his career while his team finally achieved contender status, but a disappointing postseason in which he registered a single primary point at 5-on-5 gives him something to work towards in the coming season.

Tier 4: All-Star

10. Sebastian Aho - Carolina Hurricanes

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

While playing a skilled game within the framework of the Hurricanes machine isn’t always easy, Aho has turned it into an art form. His goals per 82 games pace in the past four seasons: 38, 39, 38, and 39. All this from a centre that could credibly be described as pass-first! Aho’s great speed, high hockey IQ, steady puck management, and willingness to get to dirty areas of the ice and strip pucks from opponents have made him the Canes’ franchise player, and despite the team’s inability to get to the Stanley Cup Final, he’s been an extremely reliable producer in the postseason as well.

11. Jack Eichel - Vegas Golden Knights

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

While it may be optimistic, Eichel’s improvement in each season since becoming a Golden Knight seems destined to culminate in a full, healthy campaign. Factoring in two-way play, the 2023-24 season might have been the best regular season hockey we’ve seen from him, pacing at 40 goals and 89 points with sparkling defensive metrics (driven no doubt in large part by his elite puck thievery), adding icing on the cake to his incredible offensive toolkit that includes high-end skating, hands, passing, shot creation, and finishing. 

12. Tim Stützle - Ottawa Senators

2023 Ranking: Tier 5

The 2023-24 season seemed like it was going to be the year that Stützle went from excellent to elite, but instead, it was a regression that caused many to doubt his upside. Are those fears well-founded? Not really, no. While it’s certainly disappointing that in a year, the Sens needed to take a big step, Stützle took a step back, but a look at the numbers suggests that it was more a product of poor puck luck than anything else. He remains one of the most skilled puck-carriers in the NHL, a dangling possession monster with quick feet and quicker hands who can shoot the puck himself or dish it off the rush. Admittedly, his reputation may be a bit better if the process behind his unparalleled penalty drawing was a bit more subtle.

13. Connor Bedard - Chicago Blackhawks

2023 Ranking: Tier 6

The 2024 Calder Trophy winner’s first season in the NHL wasn’t without its flaws, but it set the stage for what should be an impressive follow-up. No man is an island, but Bedard kind of was last season after injuries took Taylor Hall out of the lineup and saddled him with linemates more suited for a fourth line than a starring role. Factoring that in, Bedard’s 26-goal, 73-point pace, strong chance creation, and transition workload look even better, and his pretty severe defensive deficiencies are a bit excusable. With big free agent additions by his side, can he unlock the elite goalscoring we expect from him?

14. J.T. Miller - Vancouver Canucks

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

Some players just produce. Their underlying numbers can look great, and they’ll produce. Their underlying numbers can look terrible, but they still produce. Miller is one of those guys, and it’s why I’m finally backing down and putting him on this list after holding off for so long. Part of that could be analytics’ relative blind spot towards the power play; the numbers’ relative shakiness in the smaller samples and pre-shot-movement driven situation causes those outcomes to be less valued than dominant 5-on-5 play. Miller is especially strong with that extra ice, especially as a passer, where he ranks fourth in primary assists on the power play in the past three seasons. That’s not to say he’s a total slouch at evens; his passing is strong, he’s more physical than the vast majority of players on this list, and he’s still got plenty of speed. 

15. Tage Thompson - Buffalo Sabres

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

Of all the shocking performances in the NHL last season, Thompson’s drop from a 99-point pace to 65 — and, more importantly, from 49 goals to 33 — was one of the biggest. At his best, Thompson is a total anomaly, a giant with unbelievable hands and a spectacular shot who’s far better cast as a spot-up shooter than a power forward. That process slipped a lot in a campaign in which nagging injuries reportedly took a toll; he was generating fewer quality looks and finishing a lot less efficiently. A greater team-wide attention to defence paid dividends as his previously terrible impacts were above-average, but we’ll see this season what impact coaching has.

Tier 5: Great First Liner

16. Mathew Barzal - New York Islanders

2023 Ranking: Tier 6

We may not have been able to roll out the “Congratulations Mathew on the career high in points” banner I’ve had in storage for the past five years, but Barzal, at long last, managed to convert his nearly peerless skating and puck skills into scoring chances and goals in the 2023-24 season. Did he do it while playing centre? Not really. But he's listed as a centre so I'm rating him as one. The Isles’ franchise player has long maddened me with his beautiful zone entries and skates around the offensive zone leading to nothing but a pass to the point, but he finally ranked in the top five percentile in dishes leading to a scoring chance last year. Now, he’s still not especially great at shooting the puck himself, but one thing at a time. 

17. Robert Thomas - St. Louis Blues

2023 Ranking: Not Ranked

Thomas solidified his standing as one of the NHL’s truly elite playmakers in 2023-24, possessing the puck and completing more passes than any other forward in the NHL. He can still be too reluctant to shoot the puck at times (although he was much better in that regard last season than in the 2022-23 season) is one of the least physical players in the game, and has defensive issues that betray his surprisingly strong reputation in that area, but his development shows just how far a separating skill with the puck can get a player.

18. Roope Hintz - Dallas Stars

2023 Ranking: Tier 4

More mouths to feed on a suddenly-deep Stars roster led to less ice time and fewer opportunities for the Finnish speedster, but what Hintz lost in point totals, he made up for in strong underlying impacts at both ends of the ice. His work in the defensive zone and excellent puck management combined with elite penalty killing earned him some mostly-deserved Selke attention, and while more subdued chance creation and 5-on-5 production is a step in the wrong direction, this is still a player with 40-goal, 80-point upside.

Tier 6 - First Liner

19. Dylan Larkin - Detroit Red Wings

2023 Ranking: Tier 6

Larkin finally inched above a point per game for the first time in his career in the 2023-24 season, a far cry from the first year I did these rankings when he was coming off two seasons at a 54-point pace. Even as his team’s playoff dreams fell apart, his production remained eerily consistent; pick any segment of 15-plus games from last year, and he almost definitely scored at roughly a point per game pace. From a skills perspective, Larkin is a well-rounded player who, despite slowing down a bit over the course of his twenties, has retained great puck skills, strong passing, and tremendous finishing upside. He plays all situations against difficult competition and manages to hold his own at both ends of the ice, no small task.

20. Nico Hischier - New Jersey Devils

2023 Ranking: Tier 5

2023-24 was not a happy time in New Jersey, and Hischier wasn't immune from the pain. Despite practically matching his career-high point pace from the season prior at 31-goals and 77-points per 82 games, his usually-solid defensive metrics took a big hit and so did his underlying chance and shot creation results. Career-best finishing certainly didn't hurt, but it will be interesting to see how he performs under a new coach in a seriously important season for his franchise.