AHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW: Eastern Conference

At long last the Calder Cup Playoffs have arrived.

The NHL’s top developmental league uses a best-of-five format for all first-round series, making a quick start is paramount. Last season the Toronto Marlies had a brief first-round stumble that forced them into an elimination game before they escaped that danger. From there they went on to win the Calder Cup.

This year the regular-season champion Charlotte Checkers lead a deep field of strong Calder Cup contenders, and they will have plenty of company for the two-month playoff fight. The Syracuse Crunch finished second in the AHL with 102 points. That just barely edged out the rival Rochester Americans while Marlies and the Atlantic Division’s Bridgeport Sound Tigers and Hershey Bears lurk out there as well.

In the Western Conference, the ever-evolving Chicago Wolves will try to avenge a first-round ouster last season. They have been excellent this season, and their adapt-and-overcome track record in the regular season could serve them well this spring. They may have to deal with a deep Pacific Division contingent led by the Bakersfield Condors and the reloaded San Diego Gulls.

Or there could be a surprise team to emerge. Last year the Texas Stars charged past more-favored picks and broke out of the Western Conference before pushing the powerhouse Marlies to Game 7 of the Calder Cup Final. Sprinkle in some last-minute additions from ousted NHL and CHL clubs for extra variety, AHL veterans gunning for big summer contracts, and the Calder Cup Playoffs annually live up to their reputation for complete unpredictability.

CHARLOTTE CHECKERS (1) VS PROVIDENCE BRUINS (4)
Going .500 in their final eight games of the regular season landed the P-Bruins a first-round date with the powerhouse Checkers, who tore through the AHL from nearly the first week of the regular season and never stopped. But for a team that excelled the way the Checkers did, a first-round opponent like Providence is no mere walk-through. Providence will put Charlotte directly into playoff mode quickly. Another wrinkle is that the Checkers have play Games 1 and 2 in Providence, where the P-Bruins tied for the second-most home points this season (then again, the Checkers themselves tied for the league lead in that category and finished second in road points).

CHECKERS
For as explosive as the Checkers are offensively, their ability to dominate the puck and smother opponents. They held opponents to 27.04 shots per game, third-best in the AHL (Providence led the AHL at 26.08 shots per game). They play today’s brand of hockey, and they do so exceptionally well. Providence head coach Jay Leach will have to find a weakness to Charlotte to exploit, but he may need a microscope to find it. Goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic had exactly the kind of season that Carolina management would want to see from a second-round pick in his third pro season. He competes and seemingly never seems to tire. Checkers management acted decisively in February to solidify one of the team’s few weaknesses, back-up goaltending, by bringing in veteran Dustin Tokarski to pair with Nedeljkovic. Adding phenomenal rookie Jake Bean back to the blue line would be helpful, though the Checkers own plenty of depth there as well. Veteran Trevor Carrick is underrated as well. Up front, the Checkers can roll four strong lines. Aleksi Saarela goes overlooked, but he ripped off a 30-goal season. Andrew Poturalski missed time at the end of the regular season due to injury, but he is an elite AHL forward. Tomas Jurco, another late-season addition, clicked quickly with rookie top prospect Martin Necas. Morgan Geekie had an excellent start to his pro career, and Nick Schilkey blossomed this season. Julien Gauthier reached 27 goals, and Nicolas Roy continues to take strides. On top of all of that, Charlotte also had the AHL’s top-ranked penalty kill.

BRUINS
P-Bruins goaltender Zane McIntyre is eligible to become an unrestricted free-agent this summer, and slowing down the Checkers’ explosive offense could mean a few more dollars his way when he sifts through his options come July. He slowed in the closing weeks of the season after a sustained run. Unlike last season, Leach does not have the likes of Jordan Binnington to turn to if McIntyre stumbles; AHL rookie Dan Vladar remains unproven. Veteran forward Paul Carey’s return from the Boston Bruins is paramount. The P-Bruins have been hit hard by Boston recalls lately. Providence’s penalty kill finished third in the AHL, and that gives Leach a good weapon against Charlotte. The Checkers can get into penalty trouble at times, but the Providence power play will need to be much better than the 22nd-ranked operation that they had in the regular season in order to exploit that.
Prediction: Checkers in 4

BRIDGEPORT SOUND TIGERS (2) VS HERSHEY BEARS (3)
They do not make third seeds like they used to in the AHL. Hershey assembled one of the best second-half AHL runs in years, digging themselves out of last place in the Atlantic Division and nearly wrestling away home-ice advantage from the Sound Tigers. This is a match-up of two well-coached teams with deep goaltending depth. Who can overcome so-so regular-season special-teams performances and improve in the first round? That could determine this very close match-up.

SOUND TIGERS
Head coach Brent Thompson’s club tied for the AHL lead in home points (57), though Hershey did dent the Sound Tigers twice on Bridgeport ice this season. Bridgeport remains without forward Michael Dal Colle, who is still on recall to the New York Islanders. Forward Tanner Fritz was lost to an injury while on recall. With Christopher Gibson and Jeremy Smith in net, the Sound Tigers should be secure. A mid-pack team in many statistical categories, the Sound Tigers are very comfortable playing close games, and their 28 victories in one-goal decisions led the league.

BEARS
A season that was expected to be a rare rebuilding season in Hershey instead transitioned into a one of the most impressive performances since the Bears and Washington Capitals joined forces in 2005. AHL rookie head coach Spencer Carbery authored one of the most remarkable midseason turnarounds in modern AHL history. A 27-5-4-2 second half (.789) lifted the Bears from the AHL’s bottom to among its top teams within three months. Ilya Samsonov overcame his first-half growing pains after coming from the KHL. The Samsonov-Vitek Vanecek is one of the best young goaltending tandems in the AHL. Their young forwards’ growth took the Bears from a one-line team to a club able to complicate opposing head coaches’ jobs with difficult match-ups. Mike Sgarbossa and Riley Barber each brought membership in the 30-goal club and provide on-ice emotion. Aaron Ness is an elite number-one defenseman who can funnel pucks out of problem areas. Ness and in-season addition Ryan Sproul have helped to bring along what was a somewhat green Hershey defense corps.
Prediction: Hershey in 5

SYRACUSE CRUNCH (1) VS CLEVELAND MONSTERS (4)
While Syracuse fought the Rochester Americans down to the second-to-last day of the regular season to settle the North Division, Cleveland had to sweat until the final day of the regular season to qualify for the postseason by two points. The storyline looming over this series is that it will extend the Columbus Blue Jackets-Tampa Bay Lightning playoff match-up to the AHL level. With the Lightning imploding, that could change Syracuse’s postseason significantly.

CRUNCH
Many observers believed that Tampa Bay’s playoff run would go two months. Instead it didn’t survive a week. That could free up defenseman Jan Rutta and Cameron Gaunce to return to Syracuse. The Crunch’s penchant for penalty trouble has been an extended issue. Having the AHL’s fifth-best penalty kill negated much of the potential damage from that lack of discipline, but Syracuse does need to clean up the penalty issue. Alex Barré-Boulet and AHL leading scorer Carter Verhaeghe are offensive forces, but Syracuse runs a very deep line-up. Goaltender Eddie Pasquale has been a rock for the Crunch, especially in the aftermath of the Connor Ingram demotion. The Crunch also had the fifth-best power play, and it can punish opponents. What sort of shadow, if any, the Lightning’s collapse might cast over the Tampa Bay organization remains to be seen. If Syracuse can avoid any of that hangover, this is a top-tier Calder Cup threat.

MONSTERS
Most worrisome for Cleveland is that forward Zac Dalpe and defenseman Adam Clendening remain on recall to Columbus. Cleveland desperately needs those two players back, especially Dalpe for his potent goal production (18 goals in his final 22 games). Forwards Sonny Milano and Alex Broadhurst returning last week from lengthy injuries was a major boost, but captain Nathan Gerbe and goaltender J-F Bérubé remain out. Thanks to veteran Brad Thiessen, Cleveland has been able to survive Bérubé’s absence. However, Bérubé, Clendening, Dalpe, and Gerbe make up a significant chunk of the line-up. The Cleveland power play must also take care against Syracuse; the Crunch had 16 shorthanded goals, second-most in the AHL.
Prediction: Syracuse in 4

ROCHESTER AMERICANS (2) VS TORONTO MARLIES (3)
The defending Calder Cup champion Marlies are far from the powerhouse that they were last season, but they remain a very dangerous opponent. Rochester had success against the Marlies in the season series, and Toronto is without goaltender Michael Hutchinson. Those are significant factors.

AMERKS
Trying to shut down the Amerks’ balanced scoring is like trying to contain an octopus. What they perhaps lack in gaudy numbers they more than make up for in the number of looks that they can throw at opponents. Victor Olofsson, C.J. Smith, Taylor Leier, Wayne Simpson, and Danny O’Regan all reached 20 or more goals among the forwards, and new arrival Tage Thompson piled up six goals in eight games after his late-season assignment from the Buffalo Sabres. The Rochester blue line features veteran Zach Redmond, a dominant force and this season’s Eddie Shore Award winner as the top AHL defenseman. Lawrence Pilut is top-tier at the AHL level, and the Amerks have a solid base behind those two. This spring is Scott Wedgewood’s chance to put the Amerks on his back and show that he can be an excellent playoff goaltender. Rochester can be dangerous early in games, and they struck first in 46 games this season, third-most in the AHL. The Amerks excelled on the road, but home ice was a weak spot for them.

MARLIES
The Marlies’ search for goaltending solutions stretched into January before Hutchinson settled in to halt some of their issues. That also alleviated some of the burden that had been put upon Kasimir Kaskisuo. Now it looks like it will be Kaskisuo’s net. Defenseman Calle Rosen is also on recall to the Leafs, and the Marlies have struggled to find a healthy, consistent defensive group. But the Marlies can put a veteran sniper like Chris Mueller up against the Syracuse attack, and Jeremy Bracco has emerged as an excellent playmaker for head coach Sheldon Keefe. The Marlies also have 10 players from last season’s Calder Cup run back on their playoff roster this season. A fourth-ranked power play and a very comfortable road presence make the Marlies quite a headache for a first-round opponent.
Prediction: Rochester in 4